Tu and Katz develop new approach for assessing transmission probabilities
New approach developed for assessing transmission probabilities of infectious organisms...
Quantifying transmission efficiency of pathogenic organisms in human populations is challenging, in part due to ethical constraints against intentionally exposing human subjects to disease pathogens. To overcome this challenge, Wanzhu Tu and Barry Katz, in collaboration with Pulak Ghosh of the Indian Institute of Management, proposed a Bayesian Markov model that allows investigators to estimate transmission probabilities from longitudinal observational behavioral and infection data. They used the method to assess the male-to-female transmission probability of Chlamydia trachomatis, the bacterium that causes chlamydial infections.
Their work was published in the latest issue of Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A.
Tu W, Ghosh P, Katz BP. A stochastic model for assessing Chlamydia trachomatis transmission risk by using longitudinal observational data. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A. 2011. 174(4). 975–989.